National pundits will read the tea leaves from this week’s elections looking for a winning message for 2026 races. But in Oregon, with our highest-in-the-Northwest unemployment rate, the answer is simple: jobs and the economy.
Oregon Democrats painted as overly progressive will need to show a greater degree of centrism locally to avoid losing their hard-fought gains. That’s where actions like the bipartisan nature of the newly formed House Trade Caucus and recent energy from the governor’s trade mission to Asia will come in handy.
But to win elections and govern such a trade-dependent state as ours more successfully, candidates need to elevate trade to be a central part of electoral discourse. The current global tariff climate creates an opening for Democrats to seize.
The 270,000 Oregon jobs connected to international trade span from semiconductor manufacturers in Hillsboro to wheat farmers in Eastern Oregon. They each represent revenue that funds our schools, parks, and roads. For too long, our leaders have taken for granted that our large employers will stay here, ratcheting tax rates to the highest levels in the nation.
The rhetoric and the anti-business climate have resulted in Oregon’s Democrats largely crowding out candidates from business backgrounds. Time and again I hear from former proud Democrats who feel without a political home. Just like businesses and wealthier residents who have fled high-tax Multnomah County (2.5% population loss since 2020), many have left the Democratic party too. Thirty-seven percent of Oregon’s voters are now non-affiliated, a higher percentage than any political party.
Just as the state needs to make a change to keep people and business here, Democrats have a chance to do the same: recruit and showcase candidates with an authentic ability to speak to parallel issues of living wages and business profit, employee health care coverage and corporate social responsibility.
Especially given the global economic uncertainty by the administration’s approach to tariffs, a dogged focus on trade, jobs, and economic growth is the path needed not just for a political party but for a state sorely needing a wake-up call for its own business climate.
Oregon unemployment is 5%, above the national rate of 4.3 and higher than every state in the Pacific Northwest. Alaska, Idaho, Montana, and Washington’s unemployment rates average 3.95%.
Nike and Intel, Oregon’s two business behemoths, are hemorrhaging jobs — layoffs in the last year alone eliminated more than 10,000 jobs.
Despite the trend lines, Oregon still has a great story to tell — a top ranked start-up climate and award-winning food and beverage scene — but we need more people at the highest levels telling that story on repeat.
Gov. Tina Kotek’s recent delegation to Seoul and Tokyo is part of shoring up trade relations and worthy of praise. Unfortunately, it also marks her first trade mission in nearly three years in office.
Phil Knight, the Nike co-founder who spent more than $5 million on gubernatorial races in Oregon since 2018, could now invest in a nonpartisan candidate recruitment and training effort to help a new generation of state and local leaders become more conversant in trade, jobs and the economy and stop scaring away business.
I recently interviewed more than 40 business leaders across the Portland metro area as part of an economic development study. Several large employers lamented they had never heard from an elected official about how government could help them grow and maintain their employee base in Oregon.
Oregon’s growth depends on attracting business, wooing investment, and constantly remembering that our quality of life depends on this economic activity and the tax revenue that comes with it.
Trade and business development aren’t alternatives to investments in schools and housing goals; they’re prerequisites.
After a recent briefing from Oregon business and industry about some of the most concerning facts about our state economy, elected leaders second-guessed the data instead of jumping to how they could be part of turning it around.
It’s time for elected leaders to realize pro-worker and pro-business messaging is not contradictory, it’s complementary.
Oregon is one of only 11 states that exports more than we import, and we should leverage that as a competitive advantage. With global markets shifting and tariff uncertainty continuing, proactive global engagement isn’t optional. Kotek’s belated mission is welcome, but Oregon needs sustained, consistent leadership on trade.
As we approach 2026 and pundits ask what the winning message will be in the next election cycle, Oregon Democrats should take note: voters want leaders who understand that economic strength isn’t separate from the public good — it’s the foundation of it.
Neil H. Simon is a government affairs principal at Porter Wright based in Portland, Oregon, and Washington, D.C., where he advises global clients on state and federal relations.
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