Just how deep the antipathy — in Oregon at least — toward both major political parties actually is, may be tested seriously in this year’s elections.
The test may not involve outright wins and losses, but the percentages will be worth watching.
What’s new is the changed electoral strategy of the Independent Party of Oregon, the state’s third largest with 154,862 registrants. That’s not a huge portion of all Oregon voters, well behind the Democrats’ 981,358 and the Republicans’ 730,080. But considering that both major parties have been declining and trail the number of nonaffiliated voters — about 1.2 million — you have to wonder what the attraction of IPO candidates, on the part of disaffected Ds and Rs, might mean.
Up to now in its nearly two decades of existence, the IPO has focused on cross-endorsing candidates, supporting either Democrats or Republicans who meet with the centrist group’s approval. In a March 26 statement, the IPO noted “In 2022 and 2024, the party sided heavily with Democratic legislators in the Oregon House and Senate, helping the Democrats to secure their current majorities through highly successful campaigns in legislative swing districts.” How large the IPO’s role in that actually was could be debated.
This year, though, the IPO changes strategy, running its own candidates under its own banner. Some cross endorsements might still be announced this summer, but the party described that prospect as: “if any.”
The party’s focus now is on five legislative races, with nominees — already named in the party’s caucus process – who have some local profile or even local political success. They’re not complete unknowns, as so many minor party contenders are.
The most prominent was the first of the group to be nominated, in January: Charlie Conrad, who as a Republican won the 12th House District seat (parts of Lane and Linn counties) in 2022, in a clearly Republican area. He broke with the caucus on transgender and abortion issues and lost the 2024 Republican primary with only 17.2% of the vote against Darin Harbick, who went on to win the general election and now is seeking a second term.
So what are Conrad’s chances as an Independent? The unknown element is the nature of local Republicans, who four years ago did vote for him. Do they stick fiercely with the party or do enough break off, together with non-GOP voters, to give him a chance? There is a Democratic candidate too, Amber Smith. How many votes will she get (past elections suggest not enough to win) and how many might break for Conrad if he looks like a serious competitor?
The other IPO contest among the five which features an incumbent targets Democratic Rep. Susan McLain of Forest Grove, most prominent in recent years on transportation issues. She is well established politically, having held her seat since her first election in 2014 (and was a Metro councilor before that), and was unopposed in 2024. This year she has a primary challenger, but no Republican opponent.
The IPO has nominated Brian Schimmel of Forest Grove, a city council member there and long active in area non-profit groups. Absent a Republican contender in the fall, and with the contentiousness of transportation finance this year, might he be able to pull enough support from the center to beat the veteran Democratic legislator? The answer again lies partly in the question of party loyalty.
Two of the open seats among the five now are held by Republican senators disqualified from running again because they participated in a lengthy walkout.
In the 6th Senate District, a heavily Republican area including part of Lane and Linn counties, Cedric Hayden’s departure drew three Republican candidates (current Rep. Jami Cate, R-Lebanon, and Nicole De Graff and Jack Tibbetts) and Democrat Sierrah Williams.
That seems to limit the opening for the IPO candidate, Patrick Starnes, who was an IPO candidate for governor in 2018 and has run as a Democrat as well. Still, his message centered on affordability and breaking down the party structures could have some resonance.
The other disqualified Republican senator in this group, Suzanne Weber of Tillamook, won her seat four years ago in a competitive district. The area is closely enough matched that when state Rep, Cyrus Javadi of Tillamook this term switched parties from Republican to Democrat, the electoral outcome this year is not clear. Regardless, it is likely to have ripple effects of some kind.
Both the Republican and Democratic primaries are competitive. But the IPO also has an entry: Melisa Finkle of Rockaway Beach, described as “a state employee and union leader focused on rural healthcare, transparency, and worker advocacy.” The large number of non-affiliated voters in the 6th Senate District may make her run significant.
Finally, the IPO has a candidate in the 40th House District in the Oregon City area, scene of many tight races. The seat now is held by Annessa Hartman, a Democrat who won two years ago with 55.8% of the vote. Hartman, who is battling cervical cancer, has temporarily stepped back from politics, and two Democrats and two Republicans have filed to replace her.
The IPO candidate here, Pat Hubbell, a pharmacist focused on medical-related issues, may have the least obvious path to a general election win among the five IPO contenders. But in this close-call district, with no incumbent and the outcome of the primaries uncertain, the impact of his presence on the ballot may be hard to predict.
Five case studies. Maybe the non-major party registrants break the way they usually do. But this fall, when we parse the numbers, we’ll get our best chance in a couple of generations to find out.
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