GUEST OPINION
6th Congressional District shouldn’t be competitive, but it is
By RANDY STAPILUS of Oregon Capital Chronicle
By most political rules of thumb, Oregon’s 6th Congressional District race this year shouldn’t be particularly competitive. But both the Democratic and Republican national political parties have declared the district a priority, a place where significant money and support will be sent. There’s a case for why that shouldn’t be so. Two years ago, when the brand new district had no incumbent, neither party had an incumbent’s advantage. The winner then, Democrat Andrea Salinas, is running as an incumbent now, and she has the advantages most incumbents can have. She has visited her district rigorously, worked on constituent projects and requests, kept in touch with key constituencies and raised plenty of money, typically an incumbent advantage. She also is a Democrat running in a district that leans gently Democratic, and isn’t particularly bedeviled in her district by issues or controversies from the Beltway. The Cook Political Report lists the district as leaning Democratic. And one more thing: She is running against the same candidate she defeated two years ago, Republican Mike Erickson. Reruns are a dynamic that more often than not—unless the candidate has some particular and specific political problem of the sort Salinas seems not to have—usually results in a repeat of the earlier result, even more so.
Erickson is an experienced candidate, but his track record doesn’t inspire confidence: He has run for the U.S. House three times, and twice for the Oregon Legislature, and lost all those races.
While the two candidates spent comparable amounts of money, each between $3 million and $4 million, this cycle Salinas has reported raising and spending far more than Erickson. Erickson is, however, wealthy enough to self-fund a substantial campaign, but reports of that haven’t surfaced as of the most recent federal campaign report at the end of June.
These considerations may be one reason why the national Republican congressional committee decided only last month to add Erickson to its priority list of candidates.
Given all that, you have to wonder why the sixth is considered so close. But there are reasons for that, too. Even if you dismiss the recent poll released by the Erickson campaign, the only poll of the race so far that showed the two candidates nearly tied, with Salinas at 45% and Erickson at 43%, there are some reasons to class this race as competitive.
First, the general election of 2022 was close. Salinas took 50% of the vote to Erickson’s 48%, a gap of just 7,210 votes. In 2022, the ballot also included a Constitution Party candidate, who pulled 6,762 votes. If you assume, reasonably, that many of those votes would have gone to Erickson absent that candidate, then the outcome would have been exceedingly close.
There are no third-party candidates on the ballot in the sixth this year, with Salinas cross-nominated by the Independent Party of Oregon.
Second, the voting base of the sixth was close two years ago and seems close and fluid now. For years, the numbers of registered Democrats and Republicans both have been in decline while the number of nonaffiliated voters has picked up significantly. That trend has held in this district in recent years. While the number of registered voters has increased by about 10,000 to 474,332 as of August according to the Secretary of State’s Office, the numbers of both Democrats and Republicans have fallen from two years ago by almost identical percentages.
We can only guess at how that will translate to votes in November.
Third, while Erickson’s campaign as such seems lightly funded, it has allies. Pro-Erickson third party mailers have hit the district, at least one blasting Salinas over a lawsuit Erickson has filed against her.
Erickson could also benefit from some name familiarity after his earlier races.
All that said, the advantages Salinas should accrue this year still give her the edge. The changes from last cycle to this one do soften or even eliminate some advantages she had then, but she’s added some new ones from her incumbency.
It’s not a wrapped-up contest. The parties are not wrong to put a priority on it, and Oregonians would be wise to pay it some attention too.
Randy Stapilus is a former newspaper reporter and editor. He lives in Carlton.
Oregon Capital Chronicle focuses on deep and useful reporting on Oregon state government, politics and policy. We help readers understand how those in government are using their power, what’s happening to taxpayer dollars, and how citizens can stake a bigger role in big decisions.
LETTERS TO THE EDITOR—
Support for Lore Christopher
To the Editor:
As a native Keizer resident, I am writing to express my strong support for Lore Christopher in her bid for mayor of Keizer. Lore has consistently demonstrated her commitment to the safety and prosperity of our community, making her the ideal candidate for this important position.
One significant contribution I have noted was her motion in the City of Keizer Budget Committee to allocate $200,000 -$400,000 annual opioid settlement funds to the Keizer Police Department for the next 20 years. This initiative ensures that these vital resources remain within our community, directly helping to support our police officers and bolster staffing levels. In times when public safety is paramount, it’s reassuring to know that Lore prioritizes the resources necessary for our law enforcement to effectively serve and protect Keizer residents.
Furthermore, Lore has earned the endorsement of both the Marion County Commissioners and the Chamber of Commerce. These endorsements are a testament to the trust and confidence that our local leaders and business community have in her vision for Keizer’s future. I wholeheartedly support her vision, which emphasizes safety first—no freezing of police officer positions—as well as robust support for small businesses that create local jobs and foster a thriving economy.
Lore Christopher is a proven candidate who truly cares about the future of Keizer, and I urge my fellow residents to join me in supporting her for Mayor. Together, we can ensure a safe and prosperous community for all.
Curtis Norby
Keizer
Marlene Parsons for city council
To the Editor:
I have known Marlene since she first moved to Keizer in the 1980s.
She immediately became involved in our community through her work with Keizer Little League. I later had the pleasure of serving with her on the Keizer City Council. I found her always prepared, knowledgeable of the issues and treating the public with respect.
She is fiscally conservative when making decisions having to do with public funds. I believe the citizens will be greatly served when she is elected to be a city councilor in November. Her work ethic and leadership is greatly needed now.
Jim Taylor
Keizer
Don’t overlook Stapleton
To the Editor:
I want to call your attention to an important state legislator candidate who could be easily overlooked.
It’s an opportunity to steer our state, and especially our small piece of it, towards greater housing affordability in a way that minimizes damage to natural resources, and a more supportive state government with compassion for all.
I know Virginia Stapleton through her hard work in Salem as my city councilor, a vital volunteer position with an intense learning curve. In her four-year term, I have seen her commit to hearing all voices through neighborhood associations, community forums, public comment, and via leadership in groups like Salem Bike Vision. Virginia has helped Salem pivot towards building affordable housing and ramp up development within our shared Urban Growth Boundary with Keizer. Her emphasis on dense, walkable housing is helping prime our community to become less car-dependant and reduce the pressure to sprawl into undeveloped county land.
If elected, Virginia would take these ideals to the Capitol where she’d fight to secure some missing pieces: sustainable transportation infrastructure, adequate mental healthcare, and a robust education system. If elected, Stapleton would push for equitable and adequate tax laws that support growing cities like Keizer and Salem. If any of these ideas lights you up and you think Keizer deserves more from Oregon’s state government, I invite you to support Virginia in her bid for House Distr)ict 21.
Marissa Theve
Salem
Ranked choice vote is not needed
To the Editor:
Courtesy of our legislature, on the ballot this year will be the opportunity to vote for using Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) in future elections. While this may sound like an exciting opportunity to some, keep in mind that RCV has been discontinued in some areas around the country. RCV can be complex, confusing and can delay results as the process works through. It can also cause a lot of extra work for election workers who in many cases are volunteers.
But here is the real curious thing about this measure that should give you some pause: Our legislature is approving its use for most elected positions with one major exception. It cannot be used for electing members of our legislature. That’s right. If approved and adopted, RCV will be used to vote for our president, members of congress, governor, attorney general and most of the other state and local officials. But not for members of the Oregon legislature. It kind of makes you wonder: If RCV is fine for voting for our president and governor (and many other positions) why isn’t it good enough for voting for and electing the members of our legislature!
Oregon presently has the best election system in the country. It is simple, straight forward and it works. Let’s not mess it up.
Jim Parr
Keizer